You don't need a degree in rocket science to figure that
private trips through the cosmos will be the killer app of the next space
age. Entrepreneurs have long dreamed of offering golf outings on the moon
or honeymoon suites in an orbiting hotel.
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Forget the golf for at least the next few decades. But as early as 2007 it
may be possible to take a slingshot ride to the edge of the atmosphere for
a celestial view of the planet and a few minutes of weightlessness—for a
bargain price of $98,000. Space Adventures of Arlington, Va., is marketing
that trip and claims that 100 would-be astronauts have already put down
deposits. An orbiting hotel may not be so far behind. Nevada real estate
magnate Robert Bigelow says he's ahead of schedule in his $500 million plan
to launch a modular space station by 2015, one that he says would have
"multiple uses," including, perhaps, rooms for couples to engage
in a little space nookie.
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Reality check: unless you have about $15 million for a ride on an old
Soviet Soyuz rocket, private space travel still exists only on design
boards and in desert workshops. If it does take off, it will be risky. One
in 20 missions to space fails, usually catastrophically. Also, the
government could set rules onerous enough to ground the fledgling industry.
The FAA is now charged with issuing launch licenses and could impose tough
restrictions on private trips, in part to minimize its own potential
liability. "Even if people accept the risks, our government will be
regulating private space travel one way or another," says Henry Hertzfeld, a space-policy expert at George Washington
University.
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But with NASA's astronauts reduced to hitching rides on Soyuz modules, the
private-rocket crowd is fired up because a privately funded ship might be
ready for takeoff within a few years. Since 1996, several teams have been
racing to develop a three-person spacecraft that could reach the edge of
the atmosphere and repeat the feat within two weeks—the qualifications
required to win the $10 million X Prize created by entrepreneur Peter Diamandis to encourage private spaceflight. Leading
that race is legendary aerospace engineer Burt Rutan,
who is gearing up for another test after his rocket plane broke the sound
barrier for the first time last December. Backing Rutan—reportedly
with $30 million—is Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen.
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Other companies, such as XCOR Aerospace of Mojave, Calif., hope to start
test flights this year. Company head Jeff Greason
says the space-tourism market would probably account "for the largest
volume of flights we anticipate." But when those blast-offs might
occur, and at what price, remains a galactic unknown.
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